Kathy Barnette Is Raising Real Money
Through September 30, Kathy Barnette raised more than $735,000. She is the Republican candidate in Pennsylvania’s Fourth Congresional District, running against incumbent Democrat, Madeleine Dean.
Can Kathy Barnette Beat Madeleine Dean? No.
In order for Barnette to unseat Dean, it’s going to require a flip of epic proportions.
What little chance Barnette has to upset Dean is based on the remote possibility that Donald Trump, while not necessarily winning the district, will improve dramatically on his 2016 showing in CD-4; and, that enough Biden voters will “split their tickets” to enable Barnette to win. Good luck with that.
One small advantage for Barnette
One factor working in Barnette’s favor is the recently passed legislation that eliminated straight party voting.
A bigger factor however, that’s working against Barnette is a Democratic trend in the district that’s been happening since the 2016 election.
Hilary Clinton won what became CD-4 in 2016, 57.8%-38.5%.
In 2018 Madeleine Dean improved on that by defeating Republican Dan David 63.52%-36.48%.
And in 2019, across the district, Democrats gained ground in municipal elections.
To make matters worse for Barnette, notwithstanding her impressive fundraising haul, it looks like Dean will still be able to outspend her by a factor of almost two to one.
Is this race an audition by Barnette for a possible Senate run in 2022?
If nothing else, Barnette has been able to generate a level of excitement in a race that would ordinarily be a complete snoozer.
However, for politcal junkeys, there actually is one interesting facet about this race. Barnette is to some extent, running against the other Republicans who will be appearing on the ballot with her.
You can be sure that the Pennsylvania GOP leadership will be paying close attention to see if she wins the “intramural” race among Republicans, and if so, by how much.
If Barnette can demonstrate her ability to “move the needle” by running a few percentage points ahead of the rest of the Republican Ticket, she could well have established herself as as the rising star they’re looking for.
Unlike Montgomery County, and especially the 4th Congressional District in Montgomery County, Republicans can compete statewide in Pennsylvania. And if she can “deliver” this year, it’s not hard to imagine the PA GOP seeing in Barnette, a candidate who could present a difficult challenge to Democrats in the 2022 race for U.S. Senate.