Your Early Election Night Prediction Cheat Sheet
In 2012, these Pennsylvania counties all voted for Barack Obama. Donald Trump flipped the green ones in 2016, and although he didn’t win them, Trump improved on Mitt Romney’s performance in the yellow ones.
We might not know the results from these places until later in the week, but there are counties in some early reporting states that have very similar patterns, and they should give us an early clue as to what to expect in these Pennsylvania counties, and for that matter, the nation as a whole.
Vermont is the most Democratic state in the country, but even though Trump got crushed there in 2016, Vermont was 5.26% less of a debacle for him than it was for Romney.
Democrats won the yellow counties in 2012 and 2016, but saw declining margins in Trump vs Clinton. Trump flipped the green county(Essex), and he flipped it by a lot. Polls close in Vermont at 7:00.
South Carolina, reliably Republican state that it is, still had 18 counties that voted Democratic in 2012. 11 of them (yellow) stayed Democratic in 2016, but Hillary Clinton’s margins were smaller than Obama’s. Trump flipped seven (green) South Carolina counties. Polls close in South Carolina at 7:00
Alabama is even more Republican than South Carolina, but it too has Democratic counties. 11 (yellow) of the 13 Alabama counties that Obama won, stayed in the Democratic column, but as was the case almost everywhere, Clinton’s margins were smaller than Obama’s. Two of Alabama’s “Obama Counties” (green) flipped to Trump. Polls close in Alabama at 8:00.
