According to Real Clear Politics, the last six polls for the Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race have all shown Josh Shapiro with at least a 10-point advantage over Doug Mastriano.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently changed its rating on this race from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Maybe if the next Trafalgar Poll shows Shapiro with a lead that is similar to what all the other pollsters are showing, Sabato will go all in and declare the race to be Solid Democratic.
But if you think Trafalgar Poll is right and all the other polls are wrong (it wouldn’t be the first time that happened), you can monetize your belief in Trafalgar and Doug Mastriano by making an “investment” on Predictit.com
And guess what? Mastriano can lose the election, and you can still make money by betting on him. Here’s how it works.
On Predictit, the price of Mastriano Shares has been dropping. It was as high as $.27/share on September 25, but today Mastriano Shares are selling for as little as $.20.
The thing about Predictit is you can get into a position or out of it at any time before the winner of the election is declared. So you if bought Mastriano today at $.20/share, and if at least two or more of the polls – other than Trafalgar – show the race tightening, the price of Mastriano shares will go up.
Even if he’s still losing, Mastriano shares will get pricier if it appears that the trend is moving in his direction. So if God answers his prayers, Mastriano is only losing by seven or eight points in a week or so – and then if he cuts the lead to five points before the end of October – You can sell the Mastriano shares you bought for $.20 for $.30. That would be a 50% profit in a month. Annualized that 600% profit. Can you make that much on your mutual funds?