On Wednesday, November 4, 2020 – the morning after the Presidential Election – a 7th-Grader at Welsh Valley Middle School with a B average in Math – could have told you that Joe Biden was going to win Pennsylvania.
Here’s all that 7th-Grader, or anybody for that matter , needed to know.
Trump was ahead by 2,912,658 -2,420,208. His lead was 492, 450 votes.
But there were 1,354,063 mail ballots still not counted.
However, 1,386,632 mail votes had been counted. That was slightly more than half of the 2,591,499 mail votes that had been cast. And 1,095,944 of them (79%) had gone to Biden. Simply put, by that time the voting trend of mail votes well established.
If Biden had only gotten 70% of the remaining mail ballots, that would have been more than enough for him to win.
As it turned out, a little more than 77% of the remaining mail ballots went to Biden.
On Thursday, November 5, as Trump began to wage a legal challenge that would have stopped election officials from counting any more ballots in Pennsylvania, ThisisLowerMerion.com was “projecting” (did an arithmetic calculation) that Biden would win Pennsylvania by about 85,000 votes.
Biden actually won by 80,555 votes