GOP Sweeps Special State House Elections
In Two Competitive Races, Dems Improved On 2018 Results, But Did Not Get The Flips They Were Hoping For.
If this was tennis, you might say that yesterday, Republicans “held serve” in three special elections to fill vacated Pennsylvania State House seats.
The most newsworthy aspect of all three elections was that they were held at all. The Bucks County Board of Elections tried to get an injunction to stop the election in HD 18, the most competitive of the three elections, however Bucks County Common Pleas Court Judge Jeffrey G. Trauger, in making his ruling, said that he lacked the authority to postpone a legislative election.
Politics Might have played a role in the decision to not postpone the election.
Speaker of the House Mike Turzai is the only one who had the authority to reschedule yesterday’s special elections. Despite calls from Governor Tom Wolf and leaders of the House Democratic Caucus to not hold the election (Democrats wanted to put it off until at least until April 28, the date of the regular statewide primary election),Turzai decided otherwise.
In an official statement he wrote “The impact of the COVID-19 virus is being felt by all of us, and I applaud the statewide efforts to practice social distancing and increased disinfecting in public spaces. These same practices will be in place on election day, but they do not require the rescheduling of the special elections.”
House Minority Leader Frank Dermody had this to say about Turzai’s decision, “Despite the clear direction and expert professional advice urging the elections be postponed by the secretary of health during a call with lawmakers today, Mike Turzai is insisting voters ignore COVID-19, and risk their lives and the lives of loved ones to satisfy his need to maintain power.”
It had been anticipated, at least until the last week or so, that interest in the presidential primary would draw significantly more Democrats than Republicans to the polls for the April 28 primary. And if the special had taken place on the same day as the regular primary, that difference in turnout could possibly have given Democrats enough of an edge to flip two House seats where they might otherwise have been only marginally competitive.
Of course, only the most cynical among us would ever consider that the impact on election results could possibly be a factor for either party wanting to postpone or not postpone the special elections.
Results Of Yesterday’s Elections
8th District – Butler and Mercer Counties
2020 Special Election – Timothy Bonner (R) 3,941 (75.37%), Phil Heasley (D) 1,288 (24.63%)
2018 General Election – Tedd Nesbitt (R) 16,221 (70.78%), Lisa Boeving-Learned (D) 6,696 (29.22%)
2016 Trump 20,260 (71.25%), Clinton 6,905 (24.28%)
58th District – Westmoreland County
2020 Special Election – Eric Davanzo (R) 4,267 (52.58%), Robert Prah (D) 3,293 (40.57%), Kenneth Bach (L) 556 (6.85%)
2018 General Election – Justin Walsh (R) 14,189 (61.72%), Mary Popovich (D) 8,802 (28.28%)
2016 Trump 18,603 (63.22%), Clinton 10,012 (34.02%)
18th District – Bucks County
2020 Special Election – Kathleen Tomlinson (R) 4,514 (55.42%), Harold Hayes (D) 3,631 (44.58%)
2018 General Election – Gene Digirolamo (R) 12,870 (56.53%), John Lamb (D)9,897 (43.47%)
2016 Trump 12,357 (44.12%), Clinton (14,803) 52.85%
Democrats’ Chances For Flipping the PA House Do Not Depend On Winning Any Of the Districts That Held Special Elections Yesterday.
As they did before yesterday’s special elections, Republicans hold 110 seats (out of 203) in the Pennsylvania House, which means Democrats need to flip nine seats in November in order to take control of that chamber.
Yesterday, the Republicans’ worst showing was in 18th District, where they won 55.42% of the vote. This is a district where Clinton beat Trump by more than 8%, so make no mistake about it, the rematch between Kathleen Tomlinson and Harold Hayes will be hard-fought, and a repeat victory by Tomlinson is not even close to a foregone conclusion.
However, in their quest to win back the House this year, Democrats have much lower hanging fruit to choose from than HD-18.
In 2018, there were 18 districts where the Republican candidates won their House seats with a smaller percentage than the 55.42% that Tomlinson received yesterday.
18 PA House Districts where in 2018, Republicans won with less than 55% of the vote.