How Covid-19 Is Impacting The SD-17 Race
To the suprise of nobody, The Covid-19 Pandemic, is playing a disruptive role in what had been the fiercely contested 17th District State Senatorial Election.
If you don’t follow the candidates on Facebook, or get emails from their campaigns, you might have already forgotten that the incumbent, Daylin Leach (right) is being challenged by East Norriton Supervisor, Amanda Cappelletti (left).
Will we have in-person voting on June 2?
Tom Wolf encourages everybody to apply for mail-in ballots, but he does not suggest eliminating in-person voting – yet.
From the governor’s press release, April 22:
As Pennsylvania continues mitigation efforts to fight COVID-19, Governor Tom Wolf is encouraging registered voters to apply for a mail-in ballot for the June 2 primary election. The governor also announced the Department of State has launched an awareness campaign to inform the public about the new primary election date and how to apply for a mail-in ballot, including sending 4.2 million postcards to primary voters. In-person voting at polling places will remain available.
“There is no more important civic duty than voting, but we also want to make sure that every primary voter can cast their vote safely,” said Governor Wolf. “This election is the first time that voters have the option to vote by mail-in ballot and I encourage every Pennsylvania voter to visit votesPA.com to conveniently update their registration or apply for a mail-in ballot.”
At this point, it’s pretty much anyone’s guess as whether or not there will be in-person voting for this year’s Primary.
Although Wolf said nothing about eliminating in-person voting, officials from several counties have been urging the governor and the legislature to make the upcoming primary an all mail-in one.
As new Coronavirus “positives” in Pennsylvania surpassed 2,000 yesterday, for the first time; it becomes more and more difficult to envision exactly what in-person elections in Montgomery and Delaware County (where the 17th District is located) might look like in June.
The candidates had this to say about eliminating in-person voting for the June 2 Primary.
Amanda Cappelletti: This is a very nuanced situation. Given the public health crisis that we find ourselves in and the need toflatten the curve, moving to an all mail-in primary for June 2 would be the healthiest and safest option. However, there are concerns of constitutionality and disenfranchisement that must be teased out to understand if this is legally feasible. But if the Governor and legislature believe that this can be done, then I would be wholly supportive of it. If we cannot move to an all mail-in primary, then we must do our best to encourage all voters to vote by mail and minimize the number of people voting in person.
Daylin Leach wrote on his website (April 9): It is very likely, and therefore very predictable, that a June 2nd day of in-person voting will be not only unrealistic, but also extremely irresponsible. Having millions of Pennsylvanians congregate, stand in line, and crowd fire halls, elementary school classrooms and gymnasiums seems like a recipe for a disastrous explosion of COVID-19 cases.
One thing is certain. Even if there is in-person voting on June 2, it won’t be like any election we have ever previously experienced.
WITF reported on April 23, that, “Well over half a million Pennsylvanians have requested an absentee or mail-in ballot, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State. That’s already more than four times the number requested during the 2016 presidential primary — and we’re still six weeks out from this year’s contest.”
On April 23, the Montgomery County Democratic Committee shared these statistics showing mail-in ballot applications. The highlighted municipalities are all in the 17th District. With more than a month to go before the filing deadline (May 26), almost 6,000 Lower Merion Democrats had filed applications for mail-in ballots.
For the 2016 Primary, when voters were choosing between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in what was still a very much contested election, only 600 Democrats in Lower Merion voted with absentee ballots.
Judges of Elections get paid $140, inspectors, clerks and machine operators all receive $110 – for a 14-hour day.
Unless the virus takes a sudden and dramatic downward trajectory, it’s not hard to imagine that more than just a few of these election officials will decide to forego the big bucks, and sit this one out.
A possible remedy for a shortage of pollworkers would be to consolidate polling places.
The state election code provides for that. It says: Two or more polling places may be consolidated, except that the consolidation of polling places may not result in more than a 60% reduction of polling place locations in the county, except for necessitous circumstances and as approved by the Department of State.
So maybe the Department of State will decide that we are in the midst of “necessitous circumstances,” and the number of polling places in the 17th Senatorial District will be consolidated.
If all that isn’t enough to discourage folks from going to polls on June 2, for the most part, this is a pretty dull election.
For 2/3 of the voters in the 17th district, there are no other contested local races that might pique their interests enough to entice them to leave the house on Election Day.
The exception is in Radnor and most of Haverford Township, where Jen Leith had been waging a lively challenge to unseat Greg Vitali.
He is seeking his 15th term representing the 166th District in the Pennsylvania House. But Leith’s campaign, as is the case with Cappelletti’s, has been driven “indoors,” and is now limited to phone-banking, emails and social media. None of the other state reps whose districts overlap SD-17 face opposition in this year’s primary.
Before Covid-19, Leach was in big trouble. He’s still in big trouble, but less so.
One Cappelletti supporter begrudgingly admitted that the Covid-19 crisis has given Leach an opportunity to “appear senatorial.” On several social media sites he has been posting “Coronavirus updates,” which Leach’s detractors point out, are mostly re-posts of reports and articles that anybody could have “scraped” off the internet.
When there were still several contenders vying to be “The Anti-Daylin” candidate, Cappelletti attempted to differentiate herself among them by being the most critical of Leach.
However, since Coranavirus became the all-encompassing story, she has not mentioned the senator on her Facebook Page. Instead Cappelletti has chosen to use her social media feed to present public service announcements (mostly, but not exclusively about Covid-19), and to call attention to the endorsements she has won from any number of high-placed Democratic elected officials, and influential advocacy groups.
If Endorsements were all that mattered, Cappelletti would defeat Leach by a landslide.
She won the endorsement of the Delaware County Democratic Committee, and came within a few votes of winning the endorsement of the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. Cappelletti also has the support of Montgomery County Democratic Chair, Joe Foster, and Lower Merion and Narberth Democratic Chair, Jonathan Shapiro. Her website also lists endorsements by the governor and U.S. Reps. Madeleine Dean and Mary Gay Scanlon.
Although they don’t appear on her website, Cappelletti has also won important endorsements from the PSEA (state teachers union) and Planned Parenthood.
Endorsements matter. That’s why candidates seek them. But endorsements might not matter as much in this election as they ordinarily would.
It almost never hurts for a candidate to be endorsed by anybody, but some endorsements are a lot more important than others. Winning the support of the Delaware County Democratic Committee was huge for Cappelletti. It increased the liklihood that she might be able to unseat Leach, far more than all of her oher endorsements, combined.
The importance of the County Committee’s endorsement becomes most apparent on Election Day.
Many voters who come to the polls for primary elections (most?) do not even know what offices are being contested, much less which candidates they would prefer to fill those offices. A discouragingly high number of primary day voters have to be reminded that they can’t vote a straight party ticket. So they rely on their committee people to hand them the Official Democratic Party Sample Ballot, which they perceive to be the next best thing to voting Straight Democrat. And then they dutifully pick and choose only the candidates that the Committee has endorsed.
But on June 2, in “The Time of Corona Virus,” assuming that there is in-person voting, the number of Election Day voters is definitely going to be surpressed.
And how many of those intrepid souls who might come out to vote, will be eager to receive the “Official Sample Ballot,” even if they and the people offering those ballots are all wearing masks and gloves? And of course this assumes that the usual cadre of folks who are always at the polls, encouragng you to vote for their endorsed candidates, will themselves be willing to bear risk.
In order for Cappelletti to leverage her endorsements, she’s going to have to rely on phone calls, emails, Facebook and maybe the postal service – if she has raised enough money to do a mailing.
With the advent of cell phones, a big challenge for candidates who want to reach voters by telephone, is just getting their correct phone numbers. This is especially true for younger and presumably more progessive voters who might be more inclined to vote for Cappelletti (none of whom have landlines). And even if her volunteers are able to connect with voters on the phone, whether they be mobile or landlines; in most situations they are going to have to make the case for their candidate by leaving a voicemail.
As far as Facebook goes, that might be a battlefield where the advantage belongs to Leach. Cappelletti has one Facebook Page on which she has 763 Likes and 794 Followers.
Leach on the other hand, has three Facebook Pages. His personal page is maxed out at 5,000 Friends. He also has his state senate page, which has 4,990 Likes and 6,997 Followers. And Leach also has his campaign page that has 11,691 Likes and 12,020 Followers.
This is not to say that there is mutual exclusivity among Capelletti’s and Leach’s Likers and Followers. And it’s also a safe bet that more than just of the few of the people who according Facebook Like him, actually loathe Senator Leach.
You might find this interesting.