SD-17 Update
Leach Releases Poll –
LM Democratic Chair To Host Fundraiser For Cappelletti
Daylin Leach released a summary of a poll conducted by Chism Strategies. The poll shows him with a commanding lead versus the seven challengers who have announced their intention to run against him.
Chism Strategies is a Jackson, Mississippi-based consulting firm. According to its website, “Chism Strategies helps elect Democrats and advance progressive causes. We serve clients from coast to coast from offices in Washington, DC, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee.”
Brad Chism is the founder and president of the firm, which claims an impressive client list.
Rebecca Johnson, spokesperson for Leach challenger, Elvira Berry, was not impressed with the Chism poll. She said, “The only poll that matters is the poll on Primary Day. Elvira Berry will win that poll, and be the next State Senator for the 17th District.”
Meanwhile
Next week, Democratic Committee of Lower Merion Narberth (DCLMN) Chair, Jonathan Shapiro, is hosting a fundraiser for another one of Leach’s challengers, East Norriton Supervisor (Vice Chair), Amanda Cappelletti.
It became apparent that Shapiro was not a fan of Leach’s, when in March of 2019 he co-signed a letter to the senator calling for his resignation. The primary author of that letter was Montgomery County Democratic Committee (MCDC) Chair, Joe Foster.
If you’re planning a dinner party, don’t seat Jonathan and Daylin at the same table.
Last May, tensions between Shapiro and Leach escalated after Leach claimed that he had been “uninvited” to the DCLMN’s annual fundraising dinner. When the matter got aired out at a committee meeeting, Shapiro disputed that. He claimed that the Senator was told that his presence at the dinner would make for an awkward situation. However, Shapiro insisted that Leach had not been “disinvited,” and had he shown up for the event, he would not have been barred at the door.
Lower Merion School Board President Also Backs Cappelletti
School Board President Melissa Gilbert is one of several prominent local Democrats who is co-sponsoring the fundraiser for Cappelletti. At the same committee meeting where Shapiro argued that he hadn’t univited Leach to the dinner, Gilbert didn’t attempt to sugarcoat that she herself had uninvitied Leach to a school board/legislative forum in April. At the committee meeting she was harshly critical of Leach, and said that she was justified in barring him from the forum.
More Support For Cappelletti Among Local Dems.
Narberth Borough Council President Aaron Muderick is also a co-sponsor of the event, as are DCLMN members; David Dormont, Ashley Best-Raiten, Jim Remsen, Mitchell Rothman and Linda Tasker. Best-Raiten had previously been Finance Chair for Leach Challenger, Sara Atkins.
Other notables include: Whitpain Supervisor, Jeff Campalongo; East Norriton Supervisors, Dennis DeSanto and Kevin McDevitt; East Norriton Tax Collector, Kate Gillen; Colonial School Board Director, Jen Dow (she’s also Chair of the Plymouth Township Dems.; Bridgeport Council Person Kyle Shenk; and State Committee Person, Amy Grossman.
The 17th Senatorial District includes all of Area 13 (Lower Merion), all of Area 12 (Upper Merion and West Conshocken), all of Area 10 (Plymouth and Whitemarsh Townships), Whitpain Township in Area 14 and East Norriton and Norristown in Area 11.
When Shapiro co-signed Foster’s letter in March, he was joined by all of the other co-chairs in Leach’s district (along with a who’s who of Montgomery County public officials).
What’s it all mean?
There are 105 precincts in the 17th Senatorial District. Each precinct can have up to two committee people (in most cases a precinct is the same as a polling location, although there are a few polling locations where there are two precincts). Allowing for vacancies, there are about 190 committee people in the district.
How many of those approximately 190 will show up for the MCDC Endorsement Convention, on January 30 (Plymouth Whitemarsh High School 7:30 PM)? That’s anybody’s guess.
Regardless of how many committee people from SD-17 appear at the high school in three weeks, it’s going to take 60% of them to endorse a candidate. Or to put another way, it will take 40% of the committee people in attendance to prevent the committee from endorsing, thereby forcing an open primary.
Party leadership seems to be coalescing around Cappelletti, but whether or not they will be able to muster the 60% needed for an endorsement is also anybody’s guess.
One thing is certain. Winning the endorsement is crucial for Cappelletti, and preventing that endorsement is just as crucial for Leach. While there is no reason to doubt the legitimacy of the Chism poll, the one thing that it does not take into consideration is the impact of what voters will do, if on election day, their committee person hands them the “Official, MCDC Yellow Sample Ballot,” and the endorsed candidate for State Senate is somebody other than Daylin Leach.
On the other hand, you don’t need to hear from a professional consultant to know, that if no candidate is endorsed, and there are multiple candidates challenging him, Daylin’s going to stay in Harrisburg for another four years.
Update
After this story was posted, the following comment came from Daniel Kalai, a spokesperson for Linda Fields.
This is not the first time a struggling campaign released internal polling to drum up fabricated support to reach for silver linings. This is very reminiscent of the Joe Hoeffel polling released in 2018 that showed a “commanding lead” over Madeleine Dean and Mary Joe Daley which we know now never materialized. This tactic is used to try to persuade donors to help with low-performing fundraising. Often times this backfires and is seen by stakeholders as a sign of desperation, especially this early on in the race.
After seeing the actual questions asked in the polling, it’s clear the polling was slanted his way because they purposely left out any negatives at all and did not test his several controversies or his current effectiveness as a legislator or any name Identification of any of his challengers. This polling data, from a very small sample of the district, essentially equates to all sizzle and no steak.
We agree that if the Primary does in fact have a large multi-candidate field after petitions, his chance of re-election is very high. However, a head-to-head race against a candidate with real resources and institutional support would be a very real challenge for him and not a walk in the park as the self-appointed “prohibitive favorite.”
The fact is this is a very high profile race, especially given the controversies involved and what’s at stake in 2020. Frankly, we will not let political gamesmanship or the blatantly biased, rigged committee endorsement process affect our mission which is to give the voters of the 17th district a real choice with a new perspective in leadership.
Linda Fields is going to concentrate on her own campaign and to continue to do the work necessary to run a competitive campaign just like she did in 2018 where she showed what she is capable of. To date, she has raised $132,000 and has gained early support with 5 union endorsements and more to come. She has a full campaign staff and a campaign office in King of Prussia. Her focus is to continue to aggressively fundraise and to execute our petition program, begin our field plan, and communicate with voters early and often across the 17th district.
