Montco Election 2019: Lower Merion Is A Snooze, Gale vs. Conner Is A Circus - GOP On Its Heels In Local Races

While Lower Merion/Narberth Republicans are at least going through the motions of fielding a slate of candidates for School Board, on Tuesday; only one real Republican will be running for any other office in Lower Merion and Narberth. Tiffany O’neill, who along with Scott Zelov is one of two Republicans on the Lower Merion Board of Commissioners, won the Ward 11 Republican Primary (unopposed). No Democrats filed in that race, and O’Neill also became the Demoratic Candidate by way of a write-in vote. Similary, Democrats Dan Bernheim, Mike Mckeon and Ray Courtney ran unopposed in their primaries in Wards 1,3 and 5. And they became the Republican candidates via write-in votes. Voters actually got to choose between two different candidates in the Wards 9 and 13 Primaries. David McComb won the Democratic Nomination in Ward 9, and Gilda Kramer won the Ward 13 Primary. However, neither McComb nor Kramer received enough write-in votes in the Republican Primaries (in which no candidates filed) to appear on the ballot as the Republican candidate. So they will have settle for just running unopposed.

What's a Bullet Vote?

In order to assure “minority representation” the top three candidates are the winners in this election. But voters can only vote for two.

Democrats now outregister Republicans in Montgomery County by 274,285 to 201,111. However, in 2018, Democrat Tom Wolf got 67.16% of the county’s gubernatorial vote. So it seems like a foregone conclusion that Democrats Val Arkoosh and Ken Lawrence will win on Tuesday.

Joe Gale, a brash 30-year-old, is the Republican incumbent. He is unapologetically calling for his supporters to cast a bullet vote for him (a bullet vote is when voters are given an opportunity to vote for multiple candidates, but choose to vote for only one).

The worst kept secret in history is that Fred Conner is also running a Bullet Vote campaign. On the record, Conner and Liz Havey (Chair of the Montgomery County Republican Committee) will probably tell you that they’re working to get all Republicans elected, up and down the ballot. But if they don’t respond accordingly to Gale’s Bullet Vote effort, with one of their own, they might as well concede the election.

In Other News - There are actually a handful of competitive D. vs. R. Battles taking place throughout the County.

Hatboro Horsham School Board

Four Democrats are challenging four incumbent Republicans in the Hatboro-Horsham School board race. In 2015 Republicans swept this race, winning 55.4% of the vote. One Democrat broke through in 2017, and won a seat on the board. Last year Bob Casey and Tom Wolf both won more than 60% of the vote here. So a Democratic sweep, which would give them control of the School Board, is not out of the question.

Franconia Supervisor

Two Democrats are running against two Republicans. In the 2015 race Republicans won about 54% of the vote. Last year Casey and Wolf both lost in Franconia. So this race is much more of a reach for Democrats.

Limerick Supervisor

Republicans won the two seats that were up for grabs in 2015, getting 54.6% of the vote. In 2017 Democrats won the one open Supervisor seat, 1584-1495. Last year Casey got 55% of the vote in Limerick and Wolf got 57.6%. This year again, two seats are being contested.

Lower Gwynedd Supervisor

In 2017 one seat was contested. Republicans won it by 1,695 to 1,629. This year it’s a two on two race, and if the results of last year’s race is any indication, the GOP’s day is done here. Casey got 63% of the vote in Lower Gwynedd and Wolf took 65%.

Lower Providence Supervisor

Look at these results from 2017! This year only one Republican is facing one Democrat. Last year Casey got 59.2% of the vote here and Wolf carried Lower Providence with 61.8%

Upper Gwynedd Commissioner

As was the case in 2015, this year will see three Democrats running at large against three Republicans. Republicans swept here in 2015, winning about 54.6% of the vote. But in 2017 it was the Democrats who did the sweeping. They won the two at large seats that year, with about 51.7% of the vote. Democrats cruised here last here – Casey 61.4% and Wolf 64%.

Whitpain Supervisor

Fred Connor was one of the two Republicans elected here in 2015. He and his running mate Tony Greco took about 55% of the vote. Following the template of several other Montgomery County municipalities, Democrats won the one open seat here in 2017, collecting 52.7% of the vote. And right on cue, Casey and Wolf won here in 2018 with 64.3% and 66.9%

The Conner-Gale Bloodbath Helps All Republicans Other Than Themselves.

You’ve got to hand it to Joe Gale. Without him, there is no story, as far as the County Commissioners Race goes. If nothing else, his whining about fake green ballots, and conspiracy theories about doctored campaign finance reports; have given us something to talk about. And more importantly, he has given Montco Republicans who both love him and hate him, a reason for showing up on Tuesday. The energy he has created could conceivably rescue some of the down-ballot Republicans who otherwise appear to be in big trouble.