If you follow Delaware County politics even a little, you probably already know that most of Delco veers Republican in odd-year elections, and it veers Democratic in even years. But the towns of Aldan, Collingdale, Eddystone, Trainer and Upland have taken that old bromide to the next level. They just don’t veer Republican in odd years, and Democratic in even years – they go Republican in odd years, and Democratic in even years.
You could have almost said the same thing for all of Delaware County, until 2017
That was the year when Democrats won the two up-for-grabs County Council seats. It was the first time ever when Democrats won an odd-year county-wide race in Delaware County.
But even in 2017, The losing Republican County Council candidates out perfomed Donald Trump’s 2016 showing in Delaware County by more than 10%. Then again, from 2007 through 2016, the average county-wide swing from odd years to even years was 16.6%. If Republicans in 2017 could have kept the swing anywhere north of 11.3%, they would have won the two Council seats.
On the other hand, Aldan, Collingdale, Eddystone, Trainer and Upland all kept their Red-Blue streaks alive by giving Republicans the majority of their votes in the 2017 County Council race. Although that year the Republicans barely eked out a 76 vote win in Collingdale, and in Alden they won by a scant 46 votes.
The odd to even year swings of Aldan, Collingdale, Eddystone, Trainer and Upland have been far more extreme than the county as a whole.
It’s almost as if these towns suffer from Split Personality Disorder.
From 2007 through 2018, the average swing from odd year to even in Eddystone has been almost 35%. At its most extreme, the town gave 66.1% of its votes to Barack Obama in 2013. And the following year the Democratic Council candidates didn’t even crack 20%.
So What About Tuesday?
In odd-year elections in these five towns, the GOP hasn’t lost once, but the gap between Republicans and Democrats has gotten progressively smaller.
The trend clearly favors the Democrats to further narrow the gap in these five towns on Tuesday, and if they do that, they will win the three Council seats. And Delaware County’s government, for first time ever, will be under the control of the Democratic Party.
Fantastic and fascinating analysis. Thank you.
Correct spelling is “Aldan,” not “Alden.”
Thanks. Will Correct