Arguments are continuing over 257 un-dated mail ballots from last year’s election in Lehigh County. In light of a recent Federal Court decision, lawyers for Dave McCormick and Mehmet (Dr.) Oz have joined the chorus, and have begun arguing over whether or not to count the un-dated mail ballots from last week’s election.
But they might be arguing over a big nothing.
Last year, in the Lehigh County election, a total of 257 ballots (out of 21,880 total mail ballots) were turned aside (they haven’t been thrown in the trash!) because they were not dated. That would be a rejection factor of 1.175%
With almost all the votes counted, the total number of Republican mail votes last week was 142,431.
McCormick got about 32% of the GOP mail ballots and Oz got around 23%. If the percentage of undated Republican mail votes were to hold in this year’s election, and they were all counted, that would add a total of 1,673 votes.
Give Oz his 23%, and he adds 387 votes. McCormick’s 32% gives him 537 votes – a net gain of about 150 votes.
McCormick trails Oz by a little less than 1,000 votes. If that’s the margin going into the re-count, then between 850-1,000 votes would have to flip to McCormick in order for this election’s argument of over un-dated mail ballots to be anything but moot.
It’s extremely unilikely that the disputed mail ballots could determine the outcome of this election. On the other hand, in this election we’ve come to expect the unexpected.