So Biden Didn’t Win PA By A Lot, But This Northeast PA Poll Had The Right Idea
Article posted here on October 17
On October 17, I posted an article showing the results of a Northeast Pennsylvania poll that Co/efficient Strategies had conducted for Jamestown Associates. Jamestown Associates was advising Jim Bognet, the unsuccessful Republican candidate who was challenging 8th District Congressman, Matt Cartwright.
At that time, Co/efficient showed Biden leading Trump in the district by 48%-46%. Their polling also showed Bognet trailing Cartwright 48%-43%.
That poll caught my attention for two reasons. First, it showed an almost 12% swing the presidential race. Donald Trump won PA-8 in 2016 by 53.3%-47.7%. Second, almost as importantly, it was Republican poll showing Trump underperforming badly.
In northeastern PA, Biden lost his home district, Scranton's #PA08, by 4%; but it was an improvement from 2016, when it was Trump +10. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was reelected w/ 52%. Cartwright most overperformed in Lackawanna & Luzerne counties, where Trump made inroads in 2016. pic.twitter.com/0kG1IyD6Tk
— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) November 17, 2020
It turns out that Co/efficient came within 1.2% of hitting the Cartwright-Bognet race on the nose.
However, in the Trump Biden race Co/efficient not only didn’t get the winner right, they were off by a not-so-healthy 6%.
Still, they were right about Trump underperforming in this district, except in the “real poll” Trump “only” underperformed his 2016 showing in CD-8 by 7.6%, rather than by the 11.6% Co-efficient was predicting last month.
They also correctly predicted that Cartwright would underperform his 2018 results, when he won the district by 9.2%