When Global Strategy Group (GSG) recently polled voters in Pennsylvania’s First Congressional District, the results showed Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick with a less than impressive 45%-38% lead over the relatively unknown Democratic candidate, Ashley Ehasz.
Fitzpatrick was first elected to his seat in 2016, replacing his brother, Mike Fitzpatrick.
January 24, 2020 – Donald Trump was the first president to appear before the March For Life Event in Washington D.C. At the event, the president called out the names of nine members of the U.S. House, including Brian Fitzpatrick’s, thanking them for their opposition to abortion rights.
According to GSG –
Fitzpatrick pays a heavy price for his anti-abortion stances and record.
After hearing a short statement on Fitzpatrick’s anti-choice position, the race shifts 17-points toward Ehasz and propels her into a 10-point lead. Fitzpatrickloses most of his support among Democrats and Ehasz opens up a big advantage over Fitzpatrick among women. “As you may have heard, the Supreme Court has struck down Roe v. Wade, ending national protections for abortion rights. Brian Fitzpatrick also wants to restrict abortion rights, even if the woman’s life is in danger and in most cases of rape and incest.”
The results of what GSG calls an “Informed Vote,” show Ehasz ahead of Fitzpatrick by 47%-37%, a 17-point shift.
But despite what the poll shows, it might be premature for Ehasz to start looking at apartments in Georgetown.
This was an internal poll done by a Democratic pollster, rated B/C by FiveThirty.com. More importantly, in order for Ehasz to benefit from what appears to be a Pro-Choice “bump,” she’s going to have to figure out a way to inform a large number of voters about Fitzpatrick’s position on abortion.
The Cook Political Report rates 81 U.S. House districts as competitive, and PA-1 is not among them. That puts Ehasz in a position of having to compete for campaign contributions with 81 Democratic candidates running in races that at least according to Cook, are more competitive than her own.
Fitzpatrick has a reputation for being a Moderate, a reputation that has enabled him to benefit from Democrats splitting tickets to vote for him.
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump in Bucks County 50.1%-48.9%, whereas Fitzpatrick beat his Democratic opponent, Christine Finello, 57.4%-42.7%.
For Bucks County voters, ticket-splitting is the rule rather than the exception.
No Democratic congressional candidate has won the county since Patrick Murphy did it in 2008. And no Republican presidential candidate has carried Bucks County since George Herbert Walker Bush turned the trick in 1988.